Education during the COVID-19 pandemic: Does national culture predict school closures and changes in student performances?

Introduction: The anticipated decline in student performance during the COVID-19 pandemic appears to have materialized in many countries. This study examined associations between national culture, school closures, and changes in student performance across countries participating in PISA 2022 ( N = 64), operationalized as forecast deviations between predicted and observed scores. Methods: Forecast deviations in PISA 2022 performance were analyzed across countries and related to indicators of national culture, school closures, and national educational and health expenditures. Cultural dimensions included Religiosity & Authority, Satisfaction, Power Distance & Collectivism, Uncertainty Avoidance, and Long-Term Orientation & Restraint. Associations were examined using regression analyses across different performance measures. Results: The observed decline in PISA performance corresponded to approximately half a year of schooling. Contrary to expectations, school closures showed only weak and statistically non-significant associations with forecast deviations ( β = –.23 to .24). Among the examined cultural dimensions, Religiosity & Authority ( β = .46) and Satisfaction ( β = .28 to .32) were positively associated with school closures. Power Distance & Collectivism showed negative associations with non-G performance measures ( β = –.15 to –.19), whereas Uncertainty Avoidance was weakly associated with smaller declines in overall performance measures. In contrast, Long-Term Orientation & Restraint was negatively related to changes in specific abilities ( β = –.11 to –.13). Educational and health expenditures showed no robust associations across models. Discussion: Overall, the findings suggest that relationships between national culture, pandemic-related restrictions, and educational outcomes were limited and inconsistent. The results indicate that cross-national differences in educational decline during the pandemic cannot be explained solely by school closures or broad cultural dimensions.