Resource allocation efficiency in forest-based wellness services: a 22-year analysis of supply-capacity and demand-potential alignment in Henan Province, China

Resource allocation efficiency in forest-based wellness services depends on the changing relationship among ecological supply, demographic pressure, investment dynamics, and demand potential. This study examines Henan Province, China, from 1999 to 2020 using an entropy-weighted TOPSIS index, supply-capacity and latent-demand-potential matching analysis, and multidimensional efficiency decomposition. The comprehensive development index followed a three-stage trajectory: slow takeoff from 2000 to 2008, rapid expansion from 2009 to 2013, and structural consolidation from 2014 to 2019. The results show that supply-capacity and demand-potential alignment was not consistently associated with higher operational efficiency. Years of moderate oversupply were associated with higher operational efficiency than years of near balance, although supplementary models indicate that this relationship is sensitive to macroeconomic and temporal conditions and should be interpreted as exploratory. Value-chain analysis shows that per-capita expenditure declined despite rising visitation, resulting in a 27% reduction in visitor efficiency from its 2012 peak. COVID-19 produced an asymmetric shock, with operational efficiency declining by 54.8% and labor efficiency falling by 65.2%, while employment contracted only marginally. These findings show that apparent supply–demand alignment at low development levels may coexist with weak operational performance. The study contributes a stage-dependent governance perspective for multifunctional forest use and highlights the need to stabilize investment, diversify wellness services, and improve value-chain conversion in forest park systems serving aging populations.