Balancing growth and conservation: Land-use policy scenarios for Uruguay’s grasslands

Land-use scenario simulations support policy decisions that seek to balance economic development with environmental conservation. In Uruguay’s Río de la Plata temperate grasslands, agribusiness expansion has driven land-use intensification, threatening biodiversity, ecosystem services, and rural livelihoods. This study integrates land-use data from 2000 to 2015 with explanatory variables in a multi-layer perceptron Markov model to predict vulnerability to change and land-use patterns for 2030 under three scenarios: business-as-usual, multifunctional land use, and grassland conservation. Under continued intensification, native grasslands are predicted to decline by 9% to a land cover of 51% by 2030, with cropland expansion accounting for 80% of the loss. Reducing cropland expansion and maintaining timber plantations at 2015 levels could preserve grassland cover at 57%, corresponding to more than 10,000 km² compared to the business-as-usual scenario. Except for a northern area with comparatively low conflict potential, approximately two-thirds of Uruguay remain highly susceptible to agricultural conversion. Applying 90 m and 180 m conservation buffers around sensitive areas may reduce agricultural spillover and enhance ecosystem service provision. Implementing 90 m protection buffers substantially curtails cropland expansion within designated areas, resulting in a 139% relative difference in net cropland change compared to the business as usual scenario. By providing high-resolution vulnerability assessments and policy-relevant insights, this study supports evidence-based land-use planning and highlights how targeted conservation measures can help navigate trade-offs between agricultural development and ecological resilience at national and local scales.