Spatiotemporal edge effects on Greater Prairie-Chicken ( Tympanuchus cupido ) nest survival

Habitat loss and degradation may directly affect prey species; however, the influence of fragmentation on their predators may impose indirect negative effects on prey that vary across space and time. In Wisconsin, USA, Greater Prairie-Chicken (Tympanuchus cupido) persist in fragmented landscapes that potentially impose indirect negative demographic consequences. Thus, we investigated the spatiotemporal effects of landscape characteristics on Greater Prairie-Chicken nest survival. We monitored 62 radio-marked female Greater Prairie-Chickens throughout the breeding seasons of 2014 and 2015. We used 70 nests to evaluate nest survival across a 65-d nesting season. We then constructed a priori models and compared them using an information-theoretic approach to investigate the effects of spatial characteristics on nest daily survival rates and the diel timing of nest failure at edge and patch levels. Although we observed considerable model uncertainty, contrary to our prediction, nest daily survival appeared to decline with increasing edge distance, regardless of edge type (β = -0.15 ± 0.08; [85% CIs = -0.03, -0.37]), declining by ca. 15% for every additional 100 m increase in distance from an edge. Moreover, nest failures were more likely to occur during the combined crepuscular-nocturnal hours closer to an edge whereas the probability of diurnal nest failure increased by ca. 69% for every 100 m increase in edge distance (β = 0.69 ± 0.27; [85% CIs = 0.3, 1.8]). Collectively, we observed patterns of daily nest survival and failure times with respect to edge features suggesting important nest predators may vary across space and diel periods. Future research enabling nest predator identification across several years may improve conservation efforts for Greater Prairie-Chickens in Wisconsin.