Patient versus surrogate decision making for life sustaining treatment and terminal care intensity

RATIONALE: Physician Orders for Life-Sustaining Treatment (POLST) and Advance Directives (AD) aim to honor patient autonomy. However, the impact of the signatory's identity-whether the patient or a surrogate-on clinical trajectories in the intensive care unit (ICU) remains poorly characterized. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the association between signatory identity and terminal care intensity and hospitalization costs among adult patients in the ICU. METHODS: This nationwide population-based cohort study utilized the South Korean National Health Insurance Service database, including 1,189,042 adult ICU admissions between 2020 and 2023. Statistical analyses employed high-dimensional fixed-effects models to account for institutional variability across 417 hospitals. RESULTS: Among 1,189,042 patients, surrogate-determined POLST (SD-POLST) was more than three times as prevalent as patient-determined POLST (PD-POLST). Among 90-day decedents, PD-POLST was associated with significantly reduced odds of invasive terminal care (OR, 0.43; 95% CI, 0.43-0.54). Conversely, SD-POLST more than doubled the odds (OR, 2.16; 95% CI, 1.98-2.35). Notably, even patients with proactive ADs experienced increased care intensity once a surrogate signed the final order (OR, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.51-1.89), indicating a phenomenon of "AD erosion." SD-POLST was also associated with significantly higher daily hospitalization costs (cost ratio, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.02-1.06) compared with no documentation. CONCLUSION: The clinical efficacy of POLST in limiting non-beneficial care depends fundamentally on the signatory. Surrogate-led decisions were associated with paradoxically higher care intensity and costs, potentially overriding prior patient wishes. These findings highlight the critical importance of early, patient-led discussions to ensure goal-concordant end-of-life care in the ICU.