Assessment of agricultural land suitability using GIS-based fuzzy logic and multi-criteria decision analysis: a case study of Silifke district, Türkiye

This study addresses GIS-based Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Fuzzy Logic approaches within a decision support model to determine agricultural land suitability in Silifke District. Physical, human, and economic factors were evaluated within a multi-criteria framework; criterion weights were determined using AHP, while spatial uncertainties were modeled using Fuzzy Logic functions. The results show that 87 % of the study area is unsuitable for agricultural production, with only 1 % falling into the “suitable” category. These findings confirm the dominant role of geomorphological constraints in the Mediterranean coastal belt on agricultural potential. The fact that 71 % of existing agricultural areas are located in highly unsuitable areas reveals a structural mismatch between planning decisions and current land use. The findings also show that the most suitable areas coincide with the Göksu Delta, creating spatial tension in terms of the conservation-use balance. The study demonstrates that the developed model provides a strategic spatial decision support tool for policy and planning processes based on the principle of “wise use” in sensitive protected areas, in line with the goals of sustainable agriculture (SDG 2), water management (SDG 6), and the conservation of terrestrial ecosystems (SDG 15).