Working paper estimates social security transfers across cohorts, suggesting varying impacts by earnings levels.
The article presents information on the working paper, The Distributional Impact of Social Security, by John B. Shoven and Michael D. Hurd. In the first part of the paper, the authors estimated transfers in the Social Security system for the Retirement History Survey sample. Transfers are the difference between the expected present value of benefits and the expected present value of taxes paid in, where the latter is adjusted for the probability of' living to retirement age. In the second part of the paper, the authors study transfers for six cohorts, whose heads are age 65 in the ten-year intervals 1970 through 2020. Twelve families are defined according to earnings levels within each cohort.
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Philip J. Harmelink (1984) studied this question.
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