Regional Security, Migration and Housing in a Conflict-Affected Economy: Quantitative Evidence from Ukraine and Post-War Recovery Scenarios

This paper presents the first empirical calibration of a spatial overlapping-generations (OLG) model of regional security risk for Ukraine, using ACLED conflict data, Ukrstat wage data, IOM displacement data, and rental market data across 24 regions. The estimates confirm a significant productivity-risk sensitivity (θ_B = 0.075), a strong rent discount in insecure areas (ξ_B = 0.852) and limited inter-regional mobility in wartime. Simulations under four security scenarios over a ten-year horizon show that targeted housing reconstruction with durable de-escalation enables substantial recovery of frontline regions, whereas protracted conflict deepens spatial inequality. The paper quantifies a region-specific peace dividend and provides an evidence-based framework for spatially differentiated post-war recovery policy.