Measurement of Green Digital Finance Development Level and Analysis of Influencing Factors in Eight Major Urban Agglomerations in China

With the introduction of China's “dual carbon” goals, green development has become a national strategy. Green digital finance, as a key driver of synergistic progress in economic sustainability and environmental protection, is crucial to the sustainable development of China's eight major urban agglomerations. This study focuses on China’s eight major urban agglomerations. Using panel data from 2011 to 2021 and a coupled coordination model, it measures the level of green digital finance development and analyzes its temporal evolution and spatial disparities. The findings reveal the following: First, the level of green digital finance development in China as a whole and across the eight major urban agglomerations has shown a steady upward trend; however, regional imbalances are pronounced, with an overall pattern of “strong in the east and weak in the central and western regions.” Second, analysis using the Dagum Gini coefficient indicates that development gaps between regions gradually narrowed during the sample period; however, results from kernel density estimation reveal that dynamic disparities in the distribution of development levels within each urban agglomeration remain significant. Building on the measurement analysis, the study further explores the factors influencing the development of green digital finance in the eight major urban agglomerations and conducts an empirical analysis using the “green data center” policy as a case study. Empirical analysis using a dual machine learning model reveals that the “green data center” policy has a significant positive impact on the development of green digital finance nationwide, and this conclusion remains valid after a series of robustness tests; heterogeneity analysis indicates that the policy effects of “green data centers” exhibit significant heterogeneity across the eight major urban agglomerations. Based on these findings, this paper proposes recommendations such as deepening the implementation of “green data center” policies, adopting differentiated regional development strategies, and establishing a talent development system for green digital finance, with the aim of promoting the development of green digital finance in China and supporting high-quality economic transformation.