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June 17, 2026Journal of Transportation Safety & Security

Traffic safety modeling of rural roads driven by urbanization: A case study of Beijing

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Authors

JZJie ZhouChina People's Public Security UniversityDZDan ZhaoChina People's Public Security UniversitySWShengyou WangChina People's Public Security University

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Implication

Randomized study investigates traffic crash frequency in rural roads during urbanization, suggesting proactive risk governance.

Key Points

  • This study aims to analyze how urbanization affects traffic crash frequency on rural roads in Beijing.
  • Utilized crash data from five rural roads in Beijing during 2023-2024.
  • Developed a negative binomial–conditional autoregressive model to analyze factors influencing crash frequency.
  • Incorporated urbanization level as a moderating variable in the analysis.
  • Moderately urbanizing areas show a significant positive association with crash frequency.
  • Highly urbanizing areas exhibit a significant negative association with crash frequency.
  • Interaction effects between central medians and urbanization level reveal that crash risk results from multiple combined influences.

Cite This Study

Zhou et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a3238acd50b63ecad20474fhttps://doi.org/10.1080/19439962.2026.2682948
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