Research on Safety Resilience of Prefabricated Building Systems Based on Improved ISM-BN

To reveal the influencing mechanism of safety resilience in prefabricated building systems (PBS), identify key risk nodes, and support targeted resilience enhancement, this study develops an improved ISM–BN analytical model. Based on 136 domestic safety accident cases involving prefabricated buildings (PB) from 2016 to 2025, and combined with bibliometric analysis, 13 causal factors were identified and an indicator system was established. Grey Relational Analysis (GRA) was introduced to improve the traditional Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) method, through which the causal factors were divided into four hierarchical levels and the hierarchical relationships among the factors and levels were clarified. Subsequently, the hierarchical structure derived from the improved ISM was mapped into a Bayesian Network (BN), and parameter learning was conducted using accident data. Through backward diagnosis and sensitivity analysis, five key risk nodes and two critical transmission paths were identified, based on which targeted improvement strategies were proposed. The results can provide methodological support and decision-making references for key risk control and resilience enhancement in PBS.