High-Resolution Mapping, Attribution, and Carbon Loss Assessment of Forest Disturbances in China’s Critical Regions Using Multi-Source Remote Sensing

Forest disturbances significantly affect the terrestrial carbon cycle, yet high-resolution detection, driver attribution, and carbon loss quantification remain challenging in cloudy and complex terrains. Here, we investigated the Northeast China and Southwest Hengduan Mountains forest regions from 2021 to 2024. We developed a Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) framework integrating multi-source remote sensing (Sentinel-1/2, Landsat 8/9) and multi-algorithm ensembles (LandTrendr, CCDC, 1D-CNN) to extract 10 m disturbance features. Automated driver attribution and carbon loss quantification were achieved utilizing the Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), Dynamic World, and GEDI L4B LiDAR data. Validation yielded overall spatial accuracies of 91.15% in the Northeast and 89.62% in the Hengduan Mountains, with corresponding ensemble F1-Scores of 0.92 in both regions. Results indicated the disturbed area in the Northeast (1084.58 ha) significantly exceeded the Hengduan region (133.48 ha). Natural degradation dominated both regions (Northeast: 72.25%; Hengduan: 88.43%), though the Northeast experienced more wildfires and anthropogenic activities. Topographically, Northeast disturbances clustered on low-lying, gentle landscapes, whereas Hengduan events occurred on steep, high-altitude terrains. Due to denser per-pixel carbon storage, the Hengduan area exhibited higher carbon emission costs per unit area. Ultimately, this framework provides a quantitative technical foundation supporting high-resolution forest conservation and spatial evaluations for carbon neutrality commitments.