Assessment of Solar Energy Capacity Across Europe: Comparative Analysis of Production and Consumption Data

Europe’s solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity is expanding rapidly, raising a key question: how much PV can each national electricity system actually absorb? Most existing assessments rely on annual or seasonal averages, which overlook the hour-by-hour match between PV generation and demand that ultimately limits feasible deployment. This study quantifies the demand-constrained PV potential of 38 European countries and how it varies across regions. Hourly PV generation is simulated in PVsyst and matched against national hourly demand from ENTSO-E. Feasible capacity is defined as the largest installation whose output never exceeds demand in any hour of the year. This system-level, time-resolved method yields operationally constrained estimates rather than purely physical potential. The 38 countries could feasibly deploy about 614 GWp of PV, generating around 678 TWh per year without exceeding hourly demand. Regional differences are pronounced: southern Europe benefits from superior solar resources, while northern and eastern regions face seasonal and infrastructural challenges. These findings underline the importance of grid modernization, energy storage, and cross-border integration. The estimates form a conservative baseline; they exclude drivers such as electric-vehicle (EV) deployment, demand-side flexibility, battery energy storage, latent demand growth, power export, and building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV), whose inclusion would expand the feasible potential. This study offers a transparent comparative framework to guide policy, investment, and system planning for Europe’s carbon-neutral energy transition.