Climate Adaptability and Low-Carbon Efficiency of AIr-Source Heat Pumps: Evidence From Provincial China

The decarbonization of building heating systems is a critical component of China’s strategy to achieve carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. Among available clean-heating technologies, air-source heat pumps (ASHPs) have emerged as an energy-efficient and environmentally sustainable alternative to conventional fossil-fuel-based heating systems. However, the performance and environmental benefits of ASHPs vary considerably across China due to differences in climatic conditions, electricity generation structures, technological development, and policy support. This study examines the climate adaptability and low-carbon efficiency of ASHP systems across China using an integrated analytical framework grounded in low-carbon transition theory and climate adaptation theory. The analysis is based on a balanced provincial panel dataset comprising 31 Chinese provinces over the period 2015–2024. Air-source heat pump performance is evaluated as a function of outdoor temperature, humidity, electricity carbon intensity, technological advancement, and government policy support. A mixed-method research design is employed, combining an extensive review of scientific literature and policy documents with quantitative techniques, including descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, and multiple regression estimation. The empirical findings reveal that outdoor temperature, technological advancement, and policy support exert significant positive effects on ASHP performance, whereas electricity carbon intensity negatively affects system efficiency and environmental effectiveness. Humidity demonstrates a comparatively weaker influence on performance outcomes. The results further indicate substantial regional heterogeneity, with moderate and hot summer–cold winter regions exhibiting more favorable operating conditions than severe cold regions. The study contributes to the literature by integrating climatic adaptability and carbon-efficiency perspectives within a single framework and provides policy-relevant insights for accelerating sustainable heating transitions in China. The findings offer practical guidance for policymakers, energy planners, and technology developers seeking to optimize ASHP deployment while supporting national decarbonization objectives.