Analysis shows significant trends in seasonal rainfall characteristics in Rwanda, aiding climate adaptation strategies.
Key Points
This research analyzes the trends and future projections of seasonal rainfall characteristics in Rwanda, focusing on onset day, cessation day, seasonal length, and rainy days.
Analyzed historical rainfall and temperature data from Rwanda Meteorology Agency (1983–2021)
Utilized the Modified Mann–Kendall test and Theil-Sen’s slope estimator to determine trends
Assessed future projections using the CORDEX-CORE multimodel-ensemble under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios for 2026–2060 and 2066–2100.
Significant increase in rainfall and rainy days observed in long rains across specific climate zones
Increase in cessation days noted in all climate zones during short rains
Projected early onset days, longer seasonal length, and increased rainy days under RCP2.6 scenario for long rains.