Implications of heatwave dynamics for adaptation and resilience in Ethiopia

Heatwaves and temperature extremes have intensified globally, with particularly strong warning signals observed across Africa and East Africa. Ethiopia, characterized by complex topography and high climate sensitivity of socio-economic systems, is highly vulnerable to changes in temperature extremes. This study examines the spatiotemporal variability of temperature extremes and heatwave characteristics over Ethiopia for the period 1991–2025. The analysis is based on quality-controlled daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperature data from 160 meteorological stations. Temperature extreme indices and heatwave metrics were computed using the ETCCDI framework with a 1991–2020 climatological baseline, while spatial patterns were analysed using inverse distance weighting (IDW) interpolation. The results indicate a consistent warming trend across Ethiopia, with both Tmax and Tmin showing persistent increases over the study period. Warm extremes (TX90p and TN90p) exhibit a significant upward shift, while cold extremes (TX10p and TN10p) show a marked decline across all major regions. Heatwave analysis reveals an increasing trend in frequency, duration, and intensity, particularly in northern, central, southern, and southeastern Ethiopia. Although interannual variability is observed in the recent period (2021–2025), the overall pattern confirms continued warming and persistent heat stress conditions. The central and northern highlands show strong intensification of warm nights, with northwestern and southwestern regions also experiencing persistent nighttime warming, reduced nocturnal cooling, and greater heat retention. Similarly, warm-day frequency is highest in central, northern, and northwestern Ethiopia, with notable expansion of extreme daytime temperatures into the western and southwestern regions. The increase in heatwave exposure has important implications for agriculture, public health, water resources, and urban systems. These findings highlight the urgent need for region-specific adaptation strategies, including heatwave early warning systems, climate-resilient agriculture, and urban heat mitigation measures. Overall, Ethiopia is experiencing a clear and sustained shift toward more frequent and intense heatwave conditions, emphasizing increasing climate risk and vulnerability.