Natural Infrastructure for Health and Environmental Risk Mitigation

Urban microclimates are facing escalating environmental risks associated with climate change, e.g., extreme heat, flooding, and storm events. These risks result in increased healthcare demands and reduced quality of life, especially among vulnerable populations. Previous conduct of natural urban developments had limited perception of their multifaceted benefits, impacting their adoption in municipal planning. This paper introduces a comprehensive, evidence-based and data-driven decision-making framework to demonstrate how natural and green retrofitting features, including urban greenery and cool urban surfaces, can effectively mitigate extreme environmental risks while promoting significant co-benefits for public health and local economy. The method integrates statistical models for community-level data and localized weather measurements, using non-linear regression and microclimate simulations. This modeling approach investigates the impact of applying natural retrofitting features on environmental and community resilience. The model simulates environmental variables (pollutant dispersion, heat exposure intensity, urban flooding, and wind storms), anticipates community health outcomes (emergency department visits, hospitalizations, etc.) and quantifies reductions in energy consumption. The proposed applications revealed that even modest increases in urban natural covers substantially reduce microclimate ambient temperatures, manage wind speeds, control runoff potential, and decrease heat-related health impacts. Key findings show that expanding natural infrastructure controlled ambient temperatures and reduced heat stress during anticipated heatwaves by more than 11%. The proposed application also controlled flooding and storm peak conditions. Anticipated reductions in health risks were also reported as a result of enhanced urban environments. While limitations exist in terms of correlative predictions, limited variables of study, and the availability of health data, this research offers an adaptable model for future studies on community resilience through natural infrastructure. This decision-making framework gives evidence-based insights into the strategic investment in nature-based solutions for healthier, more sustainable, and resilient cities in the face of increasing climate hazards.