Local Politics and Teenage Firearm Homicide: A Descriptive Study of America’s Most Populous Urban Peer Counties

Firearm homicides are a leading cause of death among American teens. While the impact of gun laws has received attention, the effects of political election outcomes over time as a determinant of health have received far less attention. Teen firearm homicide rates for 2001–2020 are therefore described according to race/ethnicity and mayoral political competition in two peer county groups, each matched for 19 socio-demographic factors. Non-Hispanic Black (Black) teen firearm homicides were highest in counties with political monopolies (one-party governance for >24 years throughout) compared to politically competitive counties. If competitive county rates had occurred in monopoly counties, estimated Black teen firearm homicide deaths would have declined from 6,912 to 3,424, independent of state gun law strength. Results generate a hypothetical framework for structural racism affecting teen homicide in these counties based primarily on political privilege and monopoly governance rather than racial privilege and political affiliation. An analytic epidemiologic study is needed to test these hypotheses.