Estimation and Trend Analysis of Emissions from Ships Registered in Republic of Korea

To address the climate impact of maritime transport, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) has implemented regulations targeting ship emissions, particularly greenhouse gases (GHGs), to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. Meeting these goals requires accurate estimates of air pollutant emissions and a clear understanding of emission trends. This study estimated air pollutant emissions from ships registered in Republic of Korea between 2021 and 2023 using a bottom-up approach. The methodology incorporates ship specification data, regression models, and correction factors based on actual fuel consumption. For ships lacking engine power data, power was estimated using a regression of gross tonnage by ship type. Annual fuel consumption was calculated using engine power, fuel type, engine configuration, and ship age, and emission factors were applied to estimate CO2, CH4, N2O, and other air pollutants. The results showed that CO2 accounts for over 98% of GHG emissions, while cargo ships, which represent only 10% of the fleet, contribute more than 60% of total GHG emissions. These findings highlight the importance of prioritizing cargo vessels in CO2 reduction strategies. This study provides baseline data to align policy development with IMO regulations and underscores the need for a continuous national framework for estimating ship emissions.