Livestock guardian dogs create safer landscapes for sheep by reducing fox predation risk attributes

Livestock predation by carnivores drives global human-carnivore conflict. Non-lethal strategies like Livestock Guardian Dogs (LGDs) prove effective, yet their interactions with biophysical factors (e.g., habitats) and ecological variables (e.g., carnivore/prey abundance) remain poorly understood. This study evaluated whether LGD presence reduces sheep predation by Lycalopex foxes and how LGDs interact with biophysical/ecological variables shaping predation risk patterns, using Chilean Patagonia ranches as a model system. Using 2017–2018 predation data, we identified key landscape and species variables influencing risk (vegetation composition, nearest distance to road/farmstead, fox/hare abundance, LGD presence) via logistic regression on kill and random points from five ranches (two with LGDs, three without). We analyzed 94 fresh sheep carcasses killed by foxes: 26 in LGD ranches (0.77 sheep/ha) vs. 68 without LGDs (1.34 sheep/ha). Fox predation was lower with LGDs (χ 2 = 4.90, p = 0.026). Models showed negative shrubland cover association and LGD × bareland × hare abundance interactions. With LGDs, risk declined with bareland and hare abundance; without LGDs, risk was unrelated to bareland but increased sharply with hare abundance. Mean predation probability was 0.26 (± 0.001), peaking at 0.39 (± 0.07) without LGDs. By mitigating risk factors, LGDs enhance landscape safety for livestock, reduce economic losses and lethal mesocarnivores control, supporting carnivore conservation in livestock-dominated landscapes.