Spatiotemporal Patterns of Suitable Wintering Habitats for the White-Naped Cranes Under Climate and Land-Use Change

The White-naped Crane (Antigone vipio), a first-class national protected bird species in China, exhibits a declining global population. To investigate the spatiotemporal patterns and drivers of wintering habitat suitability, data from 71 valid distribution sites were collected from 2015 to 2025 during the wintering period. Using the MaxEnt model, current and future (2050 and 2070) potential suitable habitat distributions were simulated under three climate scenarios: SSP126 (low emissions), SSP245 (medium emissions), and SSP585 (high emissions). The modeling yielded an average AUC value of 0.984, indicating high predictive accuracy. Key environmental variables influencing the wintering distribution of the White-naped Cranes include elevation, distance to major water, precipitation of the driest month, slope, temperature seasonality, and mean temperature of the wettest quarter. The current high-suitable area for the White-naped Cranes spans 5.64 × 104 km2 and is primarily distributed in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and in coastal wetlands along the North China. Among these, Hunan, Hubei, Jiangxi, and Anhui provinces contain relatively concentrated high-suitable areas for the species. Primarily influenced by elevation, distance to major water, precipitation of the driest month, and land-use classification, the suitable wintering habitat of the White-naped Cranes is projected to undergo significant contraction, shifting predominantly to the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. The most severe contraction is projected under the SSP585 scenario by 2070, with a reduction of 4.11 × 105 km2. Contraction areas are primarily concentrated along the Bohai and Yellow Sea coasts and in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, while minimal expansion occurs in Hubei, Anhui, and Zhejiang. The overall southwestward shift in the species’ distribution centroid may be associated with changes in elevation and distance to major water. Finally, habitat conservation strategies for the White-naped Cranes are proposed, providing a scientific basis for population protection and habitat management under future climate change.