Pathways to Future Depression Among University Students: The Role of Interpersonal Needs, Emotion Regulation and Meaning in Life

OBJECTIVES: This study examined prospective pathways to future depressive symptoms among university students, focusing on interpersonal needs, emotion regulation strategies, meaning in life, and suicide risk markers. METHODS: A longitudinal design was conducted with 737 Spanish university students assessed at baseline (T1) and 225 reassessed 14 weeks later (T2), reflecting substantial attrition across follow-up. Measures included depressive symptoms, thwarted belongingness, perceived burdensomeness, emotion regulation strategies (cognitive reappraisal and expressive suppression), meaning in life, non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI) frequency, and suicidal ideation frequency. Structural equation modeling in JASP (lavaan backend) tested a theory-driven model estimating direct and indirect effects on depressive symptoms at follow-up, controlling for baseline depression. Sensitivity analyses were performed excluding baseline depression. RESULTS: Baseline depressive symptoms were the strongest predictor of future depression. Thwarted belongingness predicted higher expressive suppression and lower meaning in life, whereas perceived burdensomeness showed a direct association with depressive symptoms at follow-up. When baseline depression was excluded, thwarted belongingness indirectly predicted future depressive symptoms through expressive suppression. The final models explained up to 42% of the variance in depressive symptoms at T2. CONCLUSIONS: Interpersonal difficulties and maladaptive emotion regulation processes predicted the persistence of depressive symptoms among university students. Interventions targeting social connectedness and expressive suppression may help reduce the risk of sustained depressive symptomatology in this population.