Dynamic Connectedness among Finance, Energy Transition, Fossil Energy, and Technology in Türkiye and Egypt: A TVP-VAR Approach

This study examines time-varying spillover dynamics among the clean energy, fossil energy, financial, and technology/telecommunications sectors in Türkiye and Egypt amid successive geopolitical and macro-financial shocks. Using daily data from January 2021 to October 2025, a TVP-VAR connectedness framework is employed to capture evolving system-wide, directional, and network-based spillovers across the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia–Ukraine conflict, and the subsequent Middle East escalation. The results indicate persistently elevated but regime-dependent interconnectedness, with system-wide spillovers tightening sharply during major energy-security shocks and partially normalizing thereafter. Spillover transmission is asymmetric and concentrated: Turkish financial institutions and fossil-energy-linked firms form a dominant transmission core, while Egyptian sectors integrate more selectively and tend to act as net receivers. Clean-energy-linked equities exhibit relatively weaker and less persistent spillover transmission than fossil-energy sectors, suggesting partial resilience; however, their connectedness increases during energy-security crises, indicating that financial decoupling remains incomplete and highly regime-contingent. Technology and telecom sectors occupy peripheral positions, responding to shocks without persistently driving contagion. Exchange rates emerge as key amplifiers of connectedness during crises. Overall, the findings highlight that energy transition resilience in emerging markets depends critically on macro-financial stability and coordinated energy–financial policy frameworks.