ELARG: An Explainable Licensing Allocation and Rationalization Governance Model for Software License Estimation and Budget Forecasting

ELARG (Explainable Licensing Allocation and Rationalization Governance) is a quantitative and explainable framework for estimating software licensing requirements and budget forecasting. The model combines technical, organizational and consumption-related variables — adoption, concurrency, growth, dependency, risk and efficiency — into a multiplicative estimator with a constrained optimization objective. The paper extends the base model with Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis, a gradient-boosted machine learning calibration layer with SHAP explainability, and a dynamic telemetry integration architecture. Empirical validation on synthetic enterprise scenarios shows a 67% reduction in estimation error compared to static user-count baselines. ELARG supports Software Asset Management (SAM), IT Financial Management (ITFM) and Enterprise Architecture governance processes.