Hybrid Spatial Analysis of Rurban Dynamics Using Geospatial and Socio-Economic Data: Case of Casablanca–Settat Region

Rurbanization and peri-urbanization are among the most dynamic territorial processes affecting metropolitan regions in Morocco, particularly within the Casablanca–Settat region. These transformations, driven by rapid urban growth, demographic pressure, and socio-economic change, generate complex transitional spaces between rural and urban environments. In this context, the present study proposes a hybrid methodology for detecting, classifying, and analyzing the rural–urban continuum by using remote sensing data and artificial intelligence techniques. The approach integrates Sentinel-2 satellite imagery, spectral indices, Global Human Settlement Layer datasets, and socio-demographic indicators derived from the Moroccan census. Two models, Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) and Graph Neural Networks (GNN), were applied to classify territories into four categories: urban, peri-urban, rurban, and rural. Model outputs were combined with expert-based decision rules to improve classification robustness and interpretability. The SOM model achieved up to 89.3% agreement with expert classifications and a Cohen’s Kappa coefficient of 0.842, demonstrating strong interpretability and consistency, while the GNN model reached 53% agreement and effectively modeled spatial dependencies and neighborhood interactions. Diachronic analysis between 2014 and 2024 revealed a 54% increase in peri-urban municipalities, a 24% decrease in rurban territories, and a decline in rural municipalities, highlighting intensified urban sprawl and fragmentation of agricultural landscapes. Beyond its scientific contribution, this study provides a valuable decision-support framework for urban planners, environmental agencies, and policy makers involved in territorial governance and sustainable development. It can support land-use planning, monitoring of urban sprawl, protection of agricultural lands, and the implementation of adaptive territorial policies aimed at improving the resilience and sustainability of rurban environments.