When the AI Replaces the Tour Guides: Testing the Disappearing Jobs Theory in AI-Augmented Tourism

Despite growing attention to artificial intelligence-driven job displacement, limited empirical research has examined whether and how tourists would accept AI replacing human tour guides—nor which psychological barriers drive resistance most strongly. Existing technology acceptance models assume functional evaluations predict adoption, yet this logic may fail in emotionally grounded service contexts. To address this gap, we conducted a multi-site survey testing Disappearing Jobs Theory using structural equation modeling, incorporating the constructs of Perceived Functional Equivalence, Perceived Affective Deficit, Experience-Seeking Orientation, and willingness to substitute. Results show that Perceived Functional Equivalence has a near-zero direct effect on willingness to substitute, challenging core assumptions of technology acceptance predictions. Instead, Technological Comfort and Perceived Affective Deficit emerge as the dominant predictors. Perceived Affective Deficit also suppresses job-disappearance acceptance. Experience-Seeking Orientation did not yield a statistically significant direct path in the structural model (β = −0.043, p = 0.348); however, subgroup analysis reveals that high-ESO tourists exhibit consistently lower willingness to substitute across all levels of perceived functional equivalence, indicating that ESO operates as a dispositional-level resistance factor rather than a significant individual-level structural predictor. Our core contribution is redefining Perceived Affective Deficit as a structural—not moderating—barrier to AI adoption and extending Disappearing Jobs Theory by integrating demand-side attitudinal constraints. These findings demonstrate that functional equivalence alone cannot drive substitution in experiential tourism; affective deficits must be addressed as independent adoption barriers.