Yield gap analytics in maize production for Texas agricultural district and state levels

Maize ( Zea Mays L.) is a globally important crop with significant economic and nutritional value. Closing its existing yield gap—the difference between potential and farmers’ achieved yields—is critical for enhancing food security and agricultural sustainability. The objectives of this study were to evaluate yield trends and quantify yield gaps in Texas maize production at both the state and agricultural district levels using data from 2014 to 2023. Actual maize yield ( Ya ) data were obtained from United States Department of Agriculture–National Agricultural Statistics Service, while irrigated yield ( Yi ) and rainfed yield ( Yr ) were sourced from Texas A&M AgriLife variety trials. Contest yield ( Yc ), representing maximum attainable yield, was derived from the National Corn Grower Association database. Historical analysis (1860–2023) revealed a 10‐fold increase in both the US and Texas maize yields. However, over the past decade, yields across all production scenarios ( Yc , Yi , Yr , and Ya ) and resulting yield gaps in Texas have remained stagnant. At the state level, average yield gaps were 40.87% between Yc and Ya ( Yg1 ), 30.11% between Yi and Ya ( Yg2 ), and −13.01% between Yr and Ya ( Yg3 ). Among agricultural districts, the Blacklands exhibited the largest yield gaps, with Yg1 at 58% and Yg3 at 37.55%, while the Northern High Plains achieved the highest maize yields ( Yc , Yi , and Ya scenarios), with Yg1 and Yg2 at 21.91% and 18.94%, respectively. These findings highlight the need for stress‐tolerant genotypes and adoption of region‐specific agronomic practices to reduce yield gaps and enhance productivity of maize systems.