Was Nixon Doomed Before the Smoking Gun? Simulating the Impeachment and Trial of the Only US President to Resign From Office

Richard Nixon resigned the Presidency 3 days after the August 5, 1974 release of the “smoking gun” tape, which recorded Nixon conspiring to obstruct the Watergate investigation. While historians agree that Congress would have removed Nixon from office after the smoking gun, his chances beforehand are still debated. We simulate Nixon's chances by multiply imputing House and Senate votes on three articles of impeachment, building our imputation model from votes cast by the House Judiciary Committee before the smoking gun. Results suggest approximately a 95 percent chance that the President would have impeached and convicted for obstruction of justice and a 89 percent chance of conviction for abuse of power. Nixon's outlook was bleak even before the smoking gun.