Hierarchical Markov Chain Monte Carlo Framework for Spatiotemporal EV Charging Load Forecasting

With the advancement of battery technology and the promotion of the “dual carbon” policy, electric vehicles (EVs) have been widely used in industrial, commercial, and civil fields, and the charging infrastructure of highway service areas across the country has also shown a rapid development trend. However, the charging load of electric vehicles in highway scenarios exhibits strong randomness and uncertainty. It is affected by multiple factors such as traffic flow, state of charge (SOC), and user charging behavior, and it is difficult to accurately model it through traditional mathematical models. This paper proposes a hierarchical Markov chain Monte Carlo (HMMC) simulation method to construct a charging load prediction model with spatiotemporal coupling characteristics. The model hierarchically models features such as traffic flow, SOC, and charging behavior through a hierarchical structure to reduce interference between dimensions; by constructing a Markov chain that converges to the target distribution and an inter-layer transfer mechanism, the load change process is deduced layer by layer, thereby achieving a more accurate charging load prediction. Comparative experiments with mainstream methods such as ARIMA, BP neural networks, random forests, and LSTM show that the HMMC model has higher prediction accuracy in highway scenarios, significantly reduces prediction errors, and improves model stability and interpretability.