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Cellulose nanofiber-reinforced plastic (CNFRP) is a promising bio-based material that can reduce fossil resource dependence and enhance circular material flows. This study quantitatively analyzes the socioeconomic impacts of introducing CNFRP and its recycled form by combining input–output analysis and dynamic material flow analysis. An extended input–output table was constructed with disaggregated sectors. In particular, petroleum and chemical product process sectors were disaggregated in detail, and three CNF-related sectors were newly established to better capture material substitution and circular flows. First, a comparative analysis was conducted on the value-added characteristics per metric ton of Talc + PP, CNFRP, and recycled CNFRP (r-CNFRP). By decomposing value-added into domestic and foreign components by feedstock and sector, the results show that both CNFRP and r-CNFRP generate higher domestic value-added and investment efficiency than Talc + PP. Then, the analysis evaluates and compares the value-added intensity of CNFRP and Talc + PP in the production of air conditioners and automobiles. Results show that in the case of air conditioners, CNFRP increases value-added in each projected year (2030, 2040, and 2050) as well as cumulative value-added by approximately 31 % compared with Talc + PP, primarily through stronger domestic economic linkages. For automobiles, although different statistics and parameters were used, similar trends were observed, with CNFRP contributing to higher domestic value-added. Notably, this cumulative value-added gain exceeds the projected decline in economic activity due to population shrinkage, suggesting that the introduction of CNFRP—especially when combined with appropriate levels of recycling—can enhance long-term socioeconomic sustainability. Sensitivity analysis further reveals that the domestic self-sufficiency rate of CNF-related feedstocks has limited influence, whereas the balance between virgin and recycled CNFRP inputs is a key determinant of economic performance. In particular, excessive recycling of CNFRP with high CNF content may reduce the demand for virgin production, thereby lowering the overall domestic value-added. These findings offer empirical insights into how material substitution and recycling interact to shape the economic implications of circular economy transitions.
Hienuki et al. (Tue,) studied this question.