The Contemporary Filipino Voter: Factionalism, Demographics, and Vote Choice

What cleavages structure voter behaviour in democracies where parties are weak, ideology diffuse, and competition personalistic? We present a data-driven account of the Philippine electorate, revealing the factional and demographic bases of self-reported vote choice in its weakly institutionalised party system. Using nationally representative data collected before the 2025 senatorial elections, we classify voters by support for three major factions — aligned with Ferdinand Marcos Jr., Rodrigo Duterte, or the Liberal-aligned Opposition — and compare them across demographic and attitudinal lines. We find that alignment is shaped less by ideology or economic views than by regional identity and social issues. Marcos and Duterte supporters are similar on most dimensions, while Opposition voters hold more liberal social views. Factional alignment strongly predicts voting intention: Duterte's endorsements are potent but polarising, while Marcos’ are weakly mobilising. These findings call for rethinking political cleavages in the Philippines as rooted in personalistic factionalism and regional loyalty, not ideology or economics.