A Reduced-Order Regime Theory for Aerosol–Halogen–Dynamics Coupling in Volcanic Super-Eruptions

Volcanic super-eruptions can perturb atmospheric composition and climate-relevant radiative properties in ways that are not captured by simple scaling from Pinatubo-like events. This study presents a reduced-order regime theory for the coupled evolution of stratospheric sulfur, sulfate aerosol burden, reactive halogens, ozone loss, stratospheric thermal adjustment, and aerosol residence time. The analysis is intended as an interpretive tool for organizing sulfur-rich volcanic scenarios, comparing literature-based benchmark classes, and designing chemistry–climate model experiments, rather than as an event-specific calibration or a substitute for three-dimensional models. Four control parameters structure the response: sulfur loading relative to microphysical saturation, effective halogen strength, ash-uptake efficiency, and dynamical lifetime sensitivity, with hemispheric asymmetry treated diagnostically. An external consistency check against published Pinatubo-like, idealized 10–40 teragrams of sulfur (Tg S), Toba-like, and Los Chocoyos-like responses is used to evaluate whether the reduced theory reproduces the expected rank ordering of aerosol saturation, forcing-efficiency decline, ozone-loss amplification, ash-driven sulfur suppression, and residence-time sensitivity. This comparison does not assign pointwise error margins against three-dimensional model output; it evaluates regime membership, sign of response, rank ordering, and broad magnitude behavior. The main conclusion is that volcanic super-eruption impacts are governed by interacting regime transitions rather than by sulfur mass alone. Microphysical saturation can limit forcing efficiency, halogens can shift the system toward chemically amplified ozone depletion, ash uptake can reduce the effective sulfur burden during the early phase, and dynamical state can control persistence and hemispheric expression. By separating these mechanisms, the study provides a compact basis for interpreting large volcanic perturbations to atmospheric chemistry and for designing targeted model experiments on extreme eruption scenarios.