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The carbon trading market (CTM) is a transformative policy tool for emissions reduction and green development. This study seeks to investigate whether CTM can serve as a potential driver for green technology innovation (GTI). To date, most literature lacks a systematic quantile and temporal analysis of the relationship between CTM and GTI. To address this gap, this paper employs a quantile autoregressive distributed lag model to assess the role of CTM in promoting GTI. The empirical findings reveal that the impact of CTM on GTI is mixed, the influence of CTM on GTI experienced significant fluctuations in earlier years but has shown a trend toward stabilization since 2021. Analysis of positional asymmetry indicates that the long-term impact generally shifts from negative to positive, with a trend of strengthening positive correlation across 0.25, 0.5, and 0.75 quantiles. In the short term, the influence across quantiles is relatively consistent and mostly positive due to the mechanisms of carbon price incentive effect and market competition pressure. Finally, the research findings emphasize the need for stable carbon pricing and enhanced innovation incentives to consolidate the role of CTM as a GTI catalyst.
Wang et al. (Sat,) studied this question.