Bivalve aquaculture under climate change: A case study of marine heatwaves and shellfish-related Vibrio disease outbreaks in Baynes Sound, British Columbia, Canada

Acute climate variability and extreme heat events have the potential to critically affect global seafood production. The role of bivalve aquaculture in global food security and the general impacts of climate change and temperature anomalies (e.g. marine heatwaves, MHWs) on bivalve physiology and susceptibility to pathogenic bacteria are discussed, including the contribution of warming and MHWs to disease outbreaks of Vibrio , a pathogen which has been linked to mass bivalve mortality and human-illness related to shellfish consumption. A case study approach is applied to carry out a focused investigation of the effects of warming and MHWs, and associated disease outbreaks, on a major bivalve aquaculture production region [Baynes Sound, British Columbia (BC), Canada]. Using a 50-year (1969–2018) dataset of daily sea-surface temperature (SST) for Baynes Sound, and BC aquaculture production statistics covering 1986–2023, we examine trends in SST and MHWs, and consider associations with documented disease outbreaks and the economic growth of shellfish farming in this region. Areas for safeguarding of the industry are also considered, including identifying periods of risk for shellfish mortality or human-illness outbreaks from vibriosis based on potential warming scenarios, and continued research on methods for mitigation of temperature stress in bivalves.