Study on the spatial spillover effect of universities’ research capability on regional economic growth

Amid widening regional disparities in China and the concentration of university resources in eastern provinces, the role of research-intensive universities in promoting balanced regional growth remains insufficiently understood. Against the backdrop of China's distinctive institutional arrangements, including the Double First-Class Initiative, local government competition and regionally differentiated development strategies, this study examines how university research capacity influences regional economic growth through spatial knowledge spillovers. Using provincial panel data from China for the period 2005–2019, we employ a Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) to analyze these relationships. The findings show that university research capacity significantly promotes both local and cross-regional economic growth. These effects are conditionally moderated by institutional and capability-related factors: university–industry collaboration enhances spillovers, firms’ technological absorptive capacity exhibits a non-linear ‘J-curve’ pattern, and government innovation support operates primarily through long-term mechanisms. The findings highlight the cumulative and intertemporal nature of university-driven spillovers and advance spatial spillover theory by emphasising non-linear, moderated diffusion in an emerging economy context. Policy implications point to differentiated regional strategies – shifting developed regions from expanding collaboration scale to improving collaboration quality, while prioritising absorptive-capacity building and cross-regional knowledge platforms in less-developed areas.