Spatial Distribution and Determinants of Poverty in Somalia: A Multilevel and Spatial Analysis From 2022 Somali Integrated Household Budget Survey Data

Poverty, a multifaceted challenge central to SDG 1, is particularly severe in Somalia, exacerbated by conflict, political instability, and climate shocks. This study investigates the spatial distribution and multilevel factors associated with poverty in Somalia. Using the 2022 Somali Integrated Household Budget Survey (SIHBS), a combined approach was employed: descriptive statistics for poverty prevalence; a two‐level mixed‐effects logistic regression to identify significant individual/household and community‐level factors; and spatial analysis (Global Moran's I, Getis‐Ord Gi*) to map clustering and identify hotspots. Results reveal profound associations at multiple levels. Household size was a powerful predictor; households of 6–10 members had over three times the odds of being in poverty (AOR = 3.43; 95% CI: 3.15–3.73). Internally Displaced Person (IDP) status was critical; non‐IDP households had 74% lower odds of poverty (AOR = 0.26; 95% CI: 0.22–0.29). Community‐level factors, particularly region, were dominant; households in Middle Shabelle faced nearly 25 times higher odds of poverty (AOR = 24.69; 95% CI: 13.61–44.79) than those in Awdal, highlighting extreme regional disparities. Significant positive spatial autocorrelation (Moran's I = 0.511, p = 0.003) confirmed that poverty is geographically clustered. Hotspot analysis identified a significant concentration of high poverty in the central regions of Middle Shabelle, Hiraan, and Bay, and a cold spot of lower poverty in the northern regions of Sanaag, Sool, and Togdheer. The findings suggest that individual/household and especially community‐level spatial factors are profoundly correlated with poverty in Somalia, revealing deep geographic and structural inequities. Targeted, context‐specific interventions focused on regional disparities and vulnerable groups are crucial for effective poverty reduction.