Peripheral presence or transient colonist? Distribution, phenology and exploratory inferences about the origin of Agrotis herzogi Rebel, 1911 (Lepidoptera, Noctuidae) in the Iberian-Balearic area

A recent rise in Iberian-Balearic records of the otherwise Sahelian/eremic noctuid moth Agrotis herzogi Rebel, 1911, fosters a need to interpret the origins, causes and outcomes of these arrivals. Based on all available evidence in the form of occurrence data in the area, its status as a resident species or only a temporary arrival and its phenology are discussed. To date, although the occurrences of the species in the area span a wide range, from Lisbon to Alicante and once in the Balearic Islands, there is a temporal and effective predominance of records in the south-west of the Iberian Peninsula. These occurrences can, moreover, be reasonably correlated with prevailing characteristic weather conditions and can reasonably be traced back to source areas in North Africa from October to April. No evidence of resident populations has yet been found. This pattern may be generalised to a number of other species previously found in North Africa that are now being recorded in the southern part of the Iberian Peninsula.