Screening battery and hybrid power systems for passenger transport eVTOLs: the role of SAF blending and CO2 reduction

Electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft are anticipated to emerge as a new mode of passenger transportation. Battery-powered systems are often favored due to their simple architecture, ease of maintenance, and zero in-flight emissions. However, inherent technical limitations of batteries impose constraints on feasible mission profiles, making power system selection a critical design factor for passenger transport eVTOLs. This study proposes a probabilistic screening framework to evaluate the likelihood of selecting suitable power systems under uncertain future environmental and economic conditions. The selection probabilities of battery-powered and series hybrid systems are quantified by simultaneously varying key parameters related to battery cost and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), including fuel price, blending ratio, and life-cycle CO 2 reduction effect. The results indicate that the series hybrid system becomes increasingly preferable relative to the battery-powered system in scenarios characterized by longer route distances and higher annual passenger volumes. In particular, SAF-related environmental parameters—namely the blending ratio and CO 2 reduction effect—are identified as dominant factors governing the selection probability of the series hybrid system. The proposed framework supports early-stage decision-making by enabling the screening of power system candidates with a high likelihood of being preferable before detailed aircraft design or high-fidelity optimization is performed.