Optimal Design of Truck Carbon Emissions Based on System Dynamics in the Context of Low-Carbon Initiatives

Currently, environmental pollution and energy shortages are increasingly becoming prominent issues.In the transportation sector, carbon emissions from road freight account for over 60% of the total carbon emissions from road traffic.Electric trucks, with their low carbon emissions and energy consumption, have become a key measure to achieve China's carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals.To address the problem of carbon emission reduction in freight transportation, this study takes Guangdong Province as an example.It conducts an in-depth analysis of the causal relationships among its population economy, vehicle development, and carbon emission subsystems.A system dynamics model for freight transportation carbon emissions is established, and four emission reduction scenarios are set up.Using Vensim software for simulation, the carbon emission reduction potential of electric trucks under different policies is analyzed.The results indicate that controlling fuel trucks is the most effective emission reduction measure, while the significant effects of promoting electric trucks require a longer time period to materialize.The effectiveness of comprehensive multi-scenario control is superior to that of single-policy scenarios.The system dynamics model for freight transportation carbon emission reduction constructed in this study can provide a reference for Guangdong Province's efforts in reducing transportation carbon emissions.