Water resource management in the Sahelian-Sudanian transition zone faces growing uncertainty under climate change, yet hydrological projections remain scarce for the Oti-Pendjari basin (West Africa). This study develops an integrated modelling chain combining CMIP6 multi-model evaluation, bias correction, and GR4J hydrological modelling to project streamflow changes under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 over 2021–2100. Eleven CMIP6 models were evaluated against ERA5 reanalysis data (1960–2014) using NSE, KGE, and MAE; the three best-performing models were bias-corrected using Linear Scaling, Variance Scaling, Quantile Mapping, and Quantile Delta Mapping. Linear Scaling proved most effective, with CMCC-ESM2 best reproducing observed precipitation (NSE and KGE up to 0.9), while the multi-model approach performed best for temperature. The GR4J model, calibrated at Porga, Mandouri, and Mango (KGE: 0.609–0.668), satisfactorily reproduces intermediate flows and flood dynamics, although structural limitations persist for low flows (KGE 1/Q: −0.65 to −0.71). Projections reveal a marked divergence between scenarios: SSP2-4.5 yields September peak flow increases of +5.7% to +16.7%, whereas SSP5-8.5 leads to slight decreases of −1.1% to −3.6%, likely driven by increased potential evapotranspiration partially offsetting precipitation gains. These findings underscore the critical importance of scenario selection and model uncertainty in regional water resource planning.
Houanyé et al. (Thu,) studied this question.