Understanding Gendered Predictive Patterns of Marital Conflict and Divorce in the UAE

Divorce and marital conflict have markedly increased across Gulf Cooperation Council countries, yet empirical evidence on gender-specific factors associated with marital disputes remains limited, particularly in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Using a sample of divorced Emirati adults, this study identified gender-specific predictors of marital dispute frequency. Gender differences across psychological, health, social, and economic domains were assessed via Mann – Whitney U tests. Gender-stratified random forest models, evaluated using 10-fold cross-validation and demographic sensitivity analyses, predicted dispute frequency by accommodating high-dimensional, non-linear relationships. SHAP (SHapley Additive Explanations) values enhanced model interpretability. Results revealed a consistent gender-differentiated pattern: women’s disputes were strongly associated with relational quality, household-role expectations, and extended-family dynamics, whereas men’s disputes were linked to emotional and sexual dissatisfaction, psychological strain, geographic separation, and financial insufficiency. Despite these differences, spousal behavioral changes after marriage and economic disparities emerged as key shared predictors, suggesting these divergent patterns threaten a universally shared desire for emotional connection and mutual respect. By integrating traditional statistics with explainable machine learning, this study highlights gender-specific correlates of marital conflict in the UAE, informing culturally sensitive counseling and family policy.