Selective Deterrence and Credibility Erosion in Multilateral Security Alliances: NATO’s Internal Perceptual Asymmetries and the Cases of Georgia and Crimea

Shin-wha Lee; Seungjin Kim

doi:10.18031/jip.2026.06.31.1.77

June 19, 2026Journal of International Politics

Selective Deterrence and Credibility Erosion in Multilateral Security Alliances: NATO’s Internal Perceptual Asymmetries and the Cases of Georgia and Crimea

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Key Points

This study examines NATO's deterrence limitations in response to crises in non-member nations, focusing on internal perception discrepancies.
Applies sensitivity and vulnerability concepts from Robert Keohane and Joseph Nye to military alliance politics.
Analyzes NATO's responses during the Georgia War (2008) and Crimea annexation (2014) to illustrate selective deterrence patterns.
Eastern European members prefer strong deterrent signals due to high sensitivity to Russian threats.
Western European core members opt for cautious responses due to energy dependence and escalation risks.
Recurring selective deterrence undermines allied credibility, allowing external actors to exploit commitment limits.

Implication

Analysis reveals how NATO's internal perceptions shape selective deterrence challenges in Georgia and Crimea, indicating serious implications for alliance credibility.

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Cite This Study

Lee et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a362ebddb0793dc1a53662d https://doi.org/10.18031/jip.2026.06.31.1.77

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Selective Deterrence and Credibility Erosion in Multilateral Security Alliances: NATO’s Internal Perceptual Asymmetries and the Cases of Georgia and Crimea

Key Points

Implication

Abstract

Discussion

Cite This Study

Selective Deterrence and Credibility Erosion in Multilateral Security Alliances: NATO’s Internal Perceptual Asymmetries and the Cases of Georgia and Crimea

Key Points

Implication

Abstract

Discussion

Cite This Study

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