Oil Rents and Conflict Dynamics: Unraveling the Impact on Intensity and Outcome Within Nations

This thesis examines the relationship between oil rents and conflict intensity, focusing on the roles of democracy, military spending, association strength, and public spending. It finds a positive correlation between the Easy Oil Index and conflict intensity, with the effect intensified in democratic countries. The study reveals that easier access to oil rents leads to reduced military spending, which can increase conflict. In addition, an inverted U-shaped relationship exists between oil rents and military expenditure. Meanwhile, stronger social groups, indicated by higher association scores, reduce conflict intensity. Contrary to expectations, oil rents do not suppress associations, and increased public welfare spending is linked to higher conflict intensity, possibly due to raised expectations and perceived unfairness.