Characterizing “production-living-ecological” space conflicts in China's ecologically fragile regions: the case of the floodplain of the Lower Yellow River

This study examines the interactive evolution of production-living-ecological (PLE) spaces and the spatiotemporal variations in spatial conflicts across the Lower Yellow River Floodplain. The Markov land-use transition matrix, spatial conflict comprehensive index (SCCI), kernel density estimation, and spatial autocorrelation analysis were employed to characterize spatiotemporal patterns. Multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) and Geodetector models were used to quantify core drivers behind PLE spatial conflict changes. The main findings are as follows: (1) During the study period, the study area experienced remarkable spatial restructuring, showing a decrease in production and living spaces and an expansion of ecological space. Agricultural production and rural living spaces shrunk continuously, whereas aquatic ecological spaces expanded rapidly and dominated overall ecological space growth. (2) Spatial conflict intensity first increased and then decreased. The SCCI value rose from 0.32 in 2000 to 0.35 in 2018, before a slight drop to 0.34 in 2020, closely tied to regional land-use restructuring and spatial governance practices. (3) PLE spatial conflicts showed substantial spatial unevenness, with low-low (L-L) clustering as the dominant pattern. The Henan reach and the Kenli section of Shandong Province remained relatively stable low-conflict zones. (4) Both natural and socioeconomic factors shaped the evolutionary changes of these conflicts. Population density (PD), land-use intensity (LUI), and road density (RD) showed relatively strong explanatory effects on spatial conflict variability. Factor interactions consistently outperformed individual factors, pointing to clear synergy among multiple drivers. These findings strengthen the empirical understanding of PLE conflict evolution in floodplain areas and provide useful evidence for formulating differentiated spatial governance schemes.