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June 20, 2026Australian Economic PapersOpen Access

Population Ageing: Implications for Economic Growth and Fiscal Sustainability

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Authors

SDSusantha DissanayakePMPriyantha MudaligeNHNam Hoang

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Overview

This randomised trial examines population ageing impacts on economic growth in advanced economies, suggesting fiscal reforms are crucial.

Key Points

  • This research explores the implications of population ageing on economic growth and fiscal sustainability in advanced economies.
  • Analyzed data from 37 OECD member countries from 1995 to 2023.
  • Developed a composite fiscal sustainability index based on nine macro-fiscal indicators.
  • Employed a dynamic panel data approach with system generalized method of moments estimation.
  • A 1% increase in the share of older adults reduces short-run GDP growth by 0.31% and long-run GDP growth by 0.37%.
  • Stronger fiscal discipline mitigates the growth impact of ageing, improving GDP growth by about 0.077 percentage points in the short run.
  • Higher labour force participation helps buffer the negative effects of demographic shifts on GDP growth.

Cite This Study

Dissanayake et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a363123db0793dc1a53817chttps://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8454.70029
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Also Consider

Synapse has enriched 5 closely related papers on similar clinical questions. Consider them for comparative context:

  1. 1Population Ageing, Public Health Expenditure and the Primary Fiscal Balance: Evidence from a Heterogeneous Global Panel, 1990–20242026
  2. 2The Silver Economy and Fiscal Outcomes in Aging Europe: A Governance-Conditioned Panel Analysis2026 · 1 citations
  3. 3The implications of population ageing on economic growth: Evidence of nonlinearity2024 · 4 citations
  4. 4THE IMPACT OF POPULATION AGEING ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: THE ROLE OF SOCIAL POLICY MODELS IN OECD COUNTRIES2025
  5. 5Aging Europe and Sustainability: Evidence from Panel Econometrics2026