Decarbonizing Urban Heating: The Role of Seasonal Thermal Energy Storage in China’s Future Energy System

This study presents a comprehensive techno-economic assessment of thin-film photovoltaic technologies, including amorphous silicon (a-Si: H), copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS), and cadmium telluride (CdTe), through integrated predictive modeling frameworks encompassing device physics, optical simulation, degradation kinetics, and economic analysis. Employing 13 quantitative equations derived from semiconductor physics and reliability engineering, the investigation systematically evaluates efficiency-limiting mechanisms and reveals voltage deficits of 350-500 mV concentrated at heterojunction interfaces, where 70-80% of the remaining improvement potential resides. Temperature-dependent performance modeling demonstrates thin-film superiority with coefficients of −0.17 to −0.36%/°C compared to −0.35 to −0.45%/°C for crystalline silicon, yielding 5-8% annual energy advantages in hot climates where CdTe achieves a levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of USD 26-32/MWh versus USD 28-35/MWh for crystalline silicon. Degradation analysis confirms 80% power retention at 25 years across all technologies, with series resistance evolution accounting for 30-40% of lifetime power losses. The manufacturing scale-up assessment quantifies lab-to-module efficiency gaps of 12-15% for CdTe, 18-22% for CIGS, and 20-25% for a-Si: H, identifying compositional uniformity and scribing losses as the dominant barriers, whose mitigation would reduce LCOE by 8-12%. Learning curve projections applying Wright's law indicate that CdTe module costs will decline from USD 0.22-0.26/W p to USD 0.15-0.18/W p by 2030, with learning rates of 18-22%. Supply risk analysis using the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index quantification confirms that critical material constraints for tellurium (HHI: 3,600) and indium (HHI: 2,800) are manageable through thickness optimization, geographic diversification, and circular-economy approaches, achieving >95% recovery rates. Patent landscape analysis reveals technology maturation with a strategic pivot toward thin-film/perovskite tandem architectures. The study concludes with actionable policy recommendations across six governance dimensions—procurement frameworks, building codes, materials security, research funding, workforce development, and technology portfolio diversification that provide evidence-based guidance for accelerating thin-film deployment toward global carbon-neutrality objectives.