From Olympic gold to government approval?: Limited evidence of attribution error from the 2024 Paris games

The impact of politically irrelevant events on government responsibility attribution and political support has long intrigued political science scholars. This study examines whether non-political events cause attribution errors, focusing on the dramatic victories of Japanese athletes winning their first and second gold medals in judo, a key Olympic sport for Japan. Using data from 1,347 Japanese participants surveyed before and after these victories, we estimate the sharp average treatment effect and conduct extensive robustness checks, including unexpected events during survey design (UESD). Our findings indicate that these medal victories had no measurable effect on political support, suggesting that voters can differentiate between external sporting successes and political accountability. These results underscore the context-specific nature of how such events influence political attitudes.