Will there be a water war in Central Asia? Predicting future conflict and cooperation

For many years, scholars have warned of coming water wars. The purpose of this paper was to examine the validity of such claims in the region of Central Asia. On the surface level, the region has experienced significant water scarcity and management problems that should have already escalated relations to the point of war. However, this paper demonstrated that such issues actually induce cooperation, rather than heighten tensions. Two major theories that describe the conditions of cooperation over water were examined: hydrohegemony and institutionalism. A theory test was conducted to determine the more useful framework. Institutionalism was able to account for more factors that accelerated and hindered coordination between riparians. Thus, it was utilized to predict the future of Central Asian water management. Some policy recommendation based on the theory were provided in the concluding section.