Algorithm analyzes earthquake swarms, predicting strong quakes in the Northern Tien Shan region.
This paper analyzes the current seismic activity of the Northern Tien Shan region and adjacent territories for the period from 2017 to 2025. An algorithm for identifying earthquake swarms is presented, and corresponding maps and diagrams are created based on its application. Physical and mathematical criteria used to identify earthquake swarms are described. It is concluded that earthquake swarms often precede strong earthquakes, the foci of which are formed in the earth's crust from structural inhomogeneities saturated with high-temperature masses, 1.5-2 years before the main event. The spatio-temporal distribution of earthquake swarms is displayed for the seismicity of the region under consideration for 2024-2025.
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Лютикова et al. (2026) studied this question.
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