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The aim is to evaluate the effectiveness of nuclear threats in compellence by incorporating strategic selection into the analysis.

Revisiting the Effectiveness of Nuclear Compellent Threats

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Explores the impact of nuclear threats on compellence, suggesting strategic selection shapes the outcomes.

The aim is to evaluate the effectiveness of nuclear threats in compellence by incorporating strategic selection into the analysis.
Divided nuclear compellent threats into two types: crisis-driven selection and surprise threats.
Examined cases of nuclear compellence since 1945, focusing on historical contexts such as US–Japan and Sino–Soviet crises.
Analyzed how strategic selection and nuclear capabilities influence outcomes.
Outcomes of nuclear threats in crises are not easily predictable; they depend on intra-crisis signaling.
In surprise scenarios, the involved nuclear capabilities significantly affect the crisis outcomes.
Historical case studies illustrate the mechanisms of strategic selection and its impact on compellence.

Downes et al. (2026) studied this question.

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